Monday November 8, 4:49 pm Eastern Time

Company Press Release

SOURCE: Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI

Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Releases Detailed Assessment Of
Global Utility Vulnerability to
Y2K Interruptions

ARLINGTON, Va., Nov. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI released today
one of the most detailed quantitative studies of the risks of utility interruptions due to Y2K
problems. The study assessed potential Y2K vulnerability in 49 different countries. It found
that the probability of widespread electric, telecommunication, water, gas, and transportation
system outages is low, but also that some areas and certain operating systems are
susceptible to a higher probability of outages or slowdowns. Any interruption would likely be
of limited duration. Electric utilities were found to be the most vulnerable systems, and
Eastern Europe, South America, and parts of Asia the most vulnerable regions.

The new study was performed by Goettel and Associates, a California firm specializing in
probabilistic risk assessments and hazard evaluations, for one of the member companies of
the Manufacturers Alliance. Based on in-depth examinations, including engineering
evaluations of over 100 separate sites, it is one of the most comprehensive analyses of the
threat to utilities from inadequate preparation for Y2K computer problems.

The major findings of the study are: 

    *     Electric power, because of the complexity of its systems, is often
          the most vulnerable of the utilities.  On a global basis, there is a
          13 percent to 14 percent chance of interruptions in service,
          although outages are expected to last only a few hours on average.
    *     Water and natural gas delivery systems are not as likely to
          experience outages, with only a 3 percent to 4 percent probability
          of interruptions worldwide.  Outages in these utilities, especially
          for natural gas, could be longer due to system design
          characteristics.  Outages of up to one week or longer are possible
          for natural gas systems, but with only a 5 percent or less of all
          interruptions reaching this length.
    *     Telecommunications systems have less than 4 percent probability of
          loss of service on a global basis, and outages are likely to be only
          a few hours.
    *     Among transportation services, trucking has the lowest Y2K
          vulnerability (4 percent) chance of delays in shipments, while rail
          (24 percent) and water shipping (33 percent) are more exposed to
          delays.  The expected increase in shipment time when delays occur
          ranges from 14 percent for trucking to 17 percent for rail and 29
          percent for shipping.
    *     The probability of outages or delays, and their duration, is higher
          in some parts of the world.  Japan, Western Europe, and North
          America are less exposed to Y2K problems than certain parts of Asia,
          Eastern Europe, and South America.  Eastern Europe (including the
          former Soviet Union) has approximately 23 percent probability of
          electric power outage and a 5.5 percent probability of natural gas
          outage.  Parts of India, China, and Brazil are also more likely to
          experience interruptions in electric power and telecommunications
          systems.


For any given site, Y2K vulnerability depends on many factors, some beyond the control of
the utilities themselves, such as fuel supplies. Even within a single city, Y2K vulnerability
may vary widely from site to site, so great caution should be exercised in interpreting these
results.

Further information can be obtained from the principal author, Dr. Kenneth Goettel, at
530-750-0440. Copies of the study are available from the Manufacturers Alliance. A
previous study, The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey of Companies' Y2K Compliance
Efforts, also is available from the Manufacturers Alliance, 1525 Wilson Boulevard, Suite
900, Arlington, VA 22209-2411. Telephone: 703/841-9000.

The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI is a policy research organization with approximately 450
member companies including leading producers in heavy industry, automotive, electronics,
precision instruments, telecommunications, computers, chemicals, oil and gas, aerospace,
and other high-technology industries