Despite official confidence, Y2K concerns dog Latin America December 20, 1999 Web posted at: 1:34 PM EST (1834 GMT) SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- From teeming coastal cities to inland jungles, Caribbean islands and Andean highlands, the diverse societies of Latin America have said they are ready for the millennium bug. But underneath the rosy official pronouncements, they share a gnawing uncertainty about Y2K. In Brazil -- the region's largest country and economy -- and elsewhere, officials see the greatest danger in nervous people who might stage a run on the banks, overload utilities like the phone system to make sure they work or overreact to minor, even routine, malfunctions. "The biggest problem we may now face is the public's perception of the problem," said Marten Elias, spokesman for the Brazilian government's Project 2000, which oversees Y2K compliance. Latin American nations hit hard by last year's economic recession have had to scramble for resources to confront the Y2K problem, but significant questions remain. In Brazil, Elias admitted that only 60 percent of the estimated 600,000 small businesses that depend on computers have taken all the necessary steps. In many cases, the lack of preparation reflects the businesses' reliance on pirated software that is difficult to upgrade. Small companies are also a concern in Mexico. Economist and lawyer Renato Opice Blum, who has been studying the problem for two years, predicts that one-third of Brazil's private businesses will grind to a halt because of Y2K failures. He also warns that manufacturers and suppliers could be slapped with Y2K-related suits for damages of up to $8 billion. In Colombia, computers at the Social Security Institute with data on 4.5 million people's labor history are not compliant and, according to the software manufacturer, have pirated programs. Officials have refused to buy the upgrade and are working feverishly to migrate the data to a different program, with no guarantee of success. There are also serious questions whether many other crucial government record systems, particularly in finance and health care, will be ready in time. In Argentina, aviation control officials said there might be problems at airports in smaller cities, where radars are not expected to be ready. And experts predict Venezuela -- distracted by dramatic political changes this year -- could face problems in electrical and phone service and even the crucial oil industry. Venezuela ranks "in the bottom tier of the countries we consider of higher risk, and that's worldwide, not just in Latin America," said Jim Cassell of the Stamford, Conn.,-based GartnerGroup, a top Y2K consulting firm. On a brighter note, companies say phones should work unless everyone tries to call at once. And experts seem to agree that the common fear of widespread blackouts has been mostly addressed. "The country's 74 power companies have been subjected to three integrated Y2K tests this year with 100 percent success," said Sergio de Oliveira Frontim, Y2K director at Brazil's National Electric Energy Association. Still, sales of individual power generators reportedly have increased 40 percent since September. The financial sector in most places appears ready. But even though the software itself may be fine, Brazil's banks could collapse if there are mass withdrawals, said Antonio Gustavo Matos do Vale, the Central Bank official overseeing Y2K preparations. Similar concerns were voiced in countries like Argentina, Ecuador, and the resource-rich Caribbean island of Trinidad, where officials were girding for a wave of robberies of people carrying their savings around. They have urged depositors to leave money where it is. Central banks in many places promise to make more funds available to ensure liquidity. Brazil's government-run consumer protection agency, Procon, urged clients to get bank statements in December to check against statements in January. The warning came after Banco Itau, Brazil's second-largest private bank, sent a letter to some clients citing a payment due on Jan. 3, 1900. Lack of development has been seen as a paradoxical advantage in countries like Haiti, the hemisphere's poorest nation, where vulnerability is lessened by the low dependence on computers. But critics say such talk could cause complacency in Central America and countries like Ecuador, where, despite a backward infrastructure, computers are involved in running essential services. Copyright 1999 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.