Bernanke Urges Deficit Reduction
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE – Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON — U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday urged lawmakers to commit to reducing the nearly $2 trillion budget deficit, warning that the government can’t borrow “indefinitely” to meet the growing demand on its resources.
Mr. Bernanke also reiterated that the pace of economic contraction appears to be slowing, setting the stage for a return to growth later this year.
“Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer run, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth,” Mr. Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Budget Committee. (Read the full remarks.)
The White House estimates that the budget deficit will reach around $1.8 trillion this year and fall to about $900 billion by 2011. That, Mr. Bernanke said, will push the debt-to-GDP ratio from 40% before the financial crisis began to 70% by 2011, which would be the highest since after World War II.
“Certainly, our economy and financial markets face extraordinary near-term challenges, and strong and timely actions to respond to those challenges are necessary and appropriate,” Mr. Bernanke told the House panel.
However, the retirement of the Baby Boom generation will place even more of a burden on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, and “we will not be able to continue borrowing indefinitely to meet those demands,” he said.
Mr. Bernanke suggested that fiscal concerns may already be having an effect in the markets. Yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen, he noted.
“These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings,” he said.
Mr. Bernanke adhered closely to the Fed’s cautiously upbeat outlook for the economy. Consumer spending, he said, has been flat since the start of the year and sentiment has improved. Housing, he said, “has also shown some signs of bottoming” and lean inventories should eventually spur production.
Still, he cautioned that even when an upturn begins, growth will remain below its long-run potential “for a while.”
“Sizable” job losses, he said, should continue for “the next few months,” pushing the unemployment rate higher. The government releases May payroll figures Friday. Economists expect another payroll decline of over 500,000, raising the jobless rate past 9%.
Against that backdrop of widening economic slack, inflation should fall over the next year compared to 2008, Mr. Bernanke said, though an improving economy and stable inflation expectations “should limit further declines in inflation.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Bernanke said the ability of banks to raise new capital “suggests that investors are gaining greater confidence in the banking system.”
But while financial conditions have improved since the start of the year, they remain under stress and continue to act as a brake on the economy, he said.