Become a master of space and time with a deep dive into science through music.
For the most part, this music is written and recorded extemporaneously.
Extemporaneous, spontaneous, improvisation, jamming, freestyle, and impromptu music are most closely related to chaos theory. The music and lyrics evolve from the "sensitive initial conditions"
similar to "a butterfly flapping its wings in China causing a hurricane in the Atlantic."
Music as a Universal Language: Music has the power to communicate emotions universally. Certain melodies, harmonies, or rhythms can evoke specific feelings that resonate with people across different cultures and backgrounds.
What is the most immediate risk to Earth due to climate change? In October of 2023 Sidd said, "Now I am thinking the violent rain will be a bigger problem before we die." Multiple factors figure into the physics of violent rain. The starting point is the moisture content of air. The Earth is warming. Warm air can physically hold more water than cool air. The warmer the air the more water vapor the air can hold (i.e. relative humidity). The capacity doubles for every ten degree Celsius warming.
The beautiful sunsets observed in the United States during forest fires in Canada can be attributed to the scattering of sunlight by smoke particles in the atmosphere. When large wildfires occur, they release significant amounts of smoke, ash, and particulate matter into the air. This smoke can be carried by the wind over long distances and may reach neighboring regions or even other countries. While the beautiful sunsets during forest fires create captivating visuals, it's essential to recognize the environmental and health impacts associated with wildfires. Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, contribute to air pollution, and pose risks to human health. The mesmerizing sunsets are a visible reminder of the interconnectedness of atmospheric processes and the far-reaching effects of natural events like wildfires.
The interactions between various factors, including ocean currents, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation, contribute to the overall climate patterns experienced on the East Coast. Climate change can influence the jet stream and atmospheric rivers, impacting weather patterns on the East Coast of the USA. The jet stream is a key player in steering weather systems and atmospheric rivers.
Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops.
Identifying and understanding these tipping points is crucial for climate science and policymaking. Crossing multiple tipping points could lead to a domino effect, resulting in a much more rapid and severe climate change than currently projected.
Presenting the Future: The Age of Loss and Damage
Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.
Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change.
The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, "integrated assessment models" (IAMs) were used to forecast "shock" events. IAMs use "quadratic function" to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. "Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn't go away," said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. "And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense -- if any."
Our climate model employs chaos theory to comprehensively consider human impacts and projects a potential global average temperature increase of 9℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global warming is a consequence of elevated thermal energy in the climate system, which comprises various subsystems. Chaos theory underscores the intricate and nonlinear nature of dynamic systems. Human well-being is compromised above a 1.5-degree temperature rise, rendering much of the Earth uninhabitable. A 9-degree Celsius increase would bring the Earth close to a wet-bulb temperature incapable of sustaining human life.
What Can I Do?
There are numerous actions you can take to contribute to saving the planet. Each person bears the responsibility to minimize pollution, discontinue the use of fossil fuels, reduce consumption, and foster a culture of love and care. The Butterfly Effect illustrates that a small change in one area can lead to significant alterations in conditions anywhere on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic. Be a butterfly and affect the world.
General Circulation Models for the earth climate are nonlinear and teleconnected. That means a small change in temperature or pressure or humidity in one small area on the globe can cause _large_ changes in conditions _anywhere_ on the globe. This is sometimes called the Butterfly effect. The complexity of these models can lead to chaotic behavior. Climate science must grapple with these models and extract results in spite of the mathematical difficulties, and there have been remarkable successes in some cases and sad failures in others. Nevertheless we must proceed.
LYRICS
The moisture
Starts taking shape
For sure
Shape of a cloud
We think
Out loud
Out loud
So proud
(How loud? Hubris us proud)
Is cumulonimbus a reflection on us
Inability to sustain
Brings on violent rain
As silent remain
Under violent rain
Under violent reign
(No fun dancing in the violent rain)
Blue pasture
What do you see
Cloud animal
Gas shaped as ass
We think
Out loud
Out loud
So proud
(How loud? Hubris us proud)
Is cumulonimbus a reflection on us
Inability to sustain
Brings on violent rain
As silent remain
Under violent rain
Under violent reign
(No fun dancing in the violent rain)
Self-portrait pareidolia (Oh, yeah!)
Irate primate watching ass gas pass
We think
Out loud
Out loud
So proud
(How loud? Hubris us proud)
Is cumulonimbus a reflection on us
Inability to sustain
Brings on violent rain
As silent remain
Under violent rain
Under violent reign
(No fun dancing in the violent rain)
… look! A loon flying by the moon
Chords: A D E A / A D C A / A G A / B7 C / C E / E G A / A G E; Part II 176 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals, Acoustic Guitar, Electric Guitar, Bass, Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
1) Pareidolia is the tendency to perceive a specific, often meaningful image in a random or ambiguous visual pattern, such as clouds.
2) The Reign of Violent Rain
My interest in sea-level rise and ice sheets collapsing began in the 1990’s after I asked Sidd his greatest concerns about human induced climate change. Much of climate change can be reversed or at least stopped from worsening. The collapse of ice sheets is irreversible. Sidd said, “A terrible future awaited.” Coastal areas were forecast to be at greatest risk.
In October of 2023 Sidd said, “Now I am thinking the violent rain will be a bigger problem before we die… still thinking it through. In the long run, ya, sea level rise will hit big. If you look at the history, it is episodic, and in the fast bits it can go up 3 feet every twenty years for five hundred years. But, the rain intensity is increasing faster today, and drainage cannot cope, whether in the city or out, culverts and such put in over the last hundred years cannot handle. So, I am paying a lot of attention to terrain and drainage far inland from the seacoast (like Ohio.) By drainage I don’t mean just human built. I mean that the natural streams and gullies and ravines have not evolved to a state that can handle the water volumes we see and the worse, larger volumes we will see. So expect huger erosion, steeper slopes to waterways, land collapses and such. Build out your drainage.”
Violent Rain
Multiple factors figure into the physics of violent rain. The starting point is the moisture content of air. The Earth is warming. Warm air can physically hold more water than cool air. The warmer the air the more water vapor the air can hold (i.e. relative humidity). The capacity doubles for every ten degree Celsius warming.
One physical result is more massive raindrops. The Momentum of Rain is p = mv (p = momentum, m = mass, v = velocity.) Part of the increasing momentum is transferred to the sides and upward increasing wind turbulence, as well as updrafts. Most of the momentum is transferred upon impact. You may notice the rain bouncing higher off the streets and sidewalks. Flowing rainwater will have both increased mass and velocity.
On the ground, concrete, asphalt, solar panels, roofs, plants, animals, houses, and infrastructure will be hit with greater momentum. In the air, the increasing mass of the rain will intensify wind turbulence. Professor Paul D. Williams of the University of Reading, UK, said, “Turbulence is chaotic (chaos theory). Turbulence is known famously as the hardest problem in physics.” In their study Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades, Prof. Williams and his team found “Climate change has caused turbulence to double in the last 40 years” and is expected to double or triple again in the next decades.
Mass and velocity are parts of a larger equation that also includes density.The combination of these variables results in an increased intensity of the flow forces (i.e. flow dynamics). Wind and water flow forces scale as the square of velocity, so as flow speeds increase (say due to more intense heating or heavier rain) the damage scales as the square of the velocity. Look at drag physics and you will see that force is proportional to density times square of velocity (v^2).
So a twenty mile an hour wind exerts four times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. And a forty mile an hour wind exerts sixteen times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. A wind of fifty miles an hour exerts twenty five times and a wind of sixty miles an hour exerts thirty six times as much force as one of ten miles an hour. Then you have the density term. Water is about eight hundred times denser than air, so the force exerted by a ten mile an hour flow of water is eight hundred times that of a ten mile an hour wind. As flow velocities go up due to climate change, force and damage scale as square of the velocities. What is not clear is how much these velocities increase with climate change. But in a sense we are seeing this already as, for example, flood and sewage systems succumb and hillsides fall down, and so on.
Rainfall-surge Hazard
The Journal Nature published the study Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall-surge hazard examining how current models underestimate the risk of Rainfall-surge Hazard. “Tropical cyclones (TCs) are drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but the current and future TC rainfall-surge joint hazard has not been well quantified. Using a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides, we show drastic increases in the joint hazard from historical to projected future (SSP5-8.5) conditions. The frequency of joint extreme events (exceeding both hazards’ historical 100-year levels) may increase by 7-36-fold in the southern US and 30-195-fold in the Northeast by 2100. This increase in joint hazard is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast, largely due to rainfall increases. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.”
Expect to see increasing intensity and/or frequency in a wide variety of violent rain events including: downpours, flooding, hurricanes, cyclones, monsoons, coastal flooding, storm surges, lightning and wildfires, hail, extreme wind, and concurrent extremes. The reign of violent rain has already begun. More hillsides and shorelines are collapsing. Atmospheric rivers are dramatically increasing flash flooding in the Northeastern USA (pictured beach erosion in Ocean City, NJ / December 2023). Worldwide, stormwater systems are becoming overwhelmed. Ironically, the streets of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, UAE, flooded days before the COP28 Climate Conference (pictured / November 2023). Nowhere is safe from violent rain, not even in the desert preparing for a UN meeting on the climate crisis. As a result of increasing violent rain, new drainage culverts are forming. Eventually, the culverts will transform into recurring streams, carving new canyons, creating new landscapes and islands. At the same time as the violent rain makes its way to the sea, the sea is rising to meet the violent rain.
Conclusion
Humans are making the Earth hotter. The cool water from the melting ice at the poles is being drawn toward the center of the Earth and getting warmed to record high temperatures. The warm, moist air is circulating and moving over land. The average time moisture stays in the air is 9 days before it turns into precipitation. The warmer the air becomes, the more rain the atmosphere holds and dumps; therefore, violent rain events are increasing in frequency and intensity. The greatest short term risk to the Earth is violent rain (liquified water vapor). The greatest short term risk to human health is deadly humid heat (hot water vapor).
— from The Reign of Violent Rain / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Also see: Atmospheric Rivers Mukherjee and Brouse (2022-2023)
3) While sitting outside writing the song, I looked at the passing clouds and saw the form of Man taking shape as an ass in the water vapor gas. The storm clouds approaching, I thought about Gene Kelly in the movie “Singin’ in the Rain”:
Let the stormy clouds chase everyone from the place
Come on with the rain, I’ve a smile on my face
I walk down the lane with a happy refrain
Just singin’, singin’ in the rain
Dancin’ in the rain
I’m happy again
I’m singin’ and dancin’ in the rain
And, I thought to myself, “No, it’s no fun dancing in the violent rain.”
LYRICS
As the flow force intensifies
It’s hard to open up my eyes
Spin me round
Blow me down
As the wind speed increases
Harder, harder never ceases
Spin me round
Blow me down
Often found on the ground
Flat on my back
A big black cloud following
Foreshadowing
Shadowing
Foreshadowing shadowing
Here’s the thing:
The dark days grow darker
There’s no days to grow
The leading edge grows sharper
Bleeding we’ll come to know
As the flow force intensifies
It’s hard to open up my eyes
Spin me round
Blow me down
Chords: Bb/7 / Eb Db Bb / Ab Bb / Eb Db Bb / Fm Bb; Part II 166 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals, Acoustic Guitar, Electric Guitar, Bass, Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
A song about The Reign of Violent Rain and flow forces. Wind and water flow forces scale as the square of velocity, so as flow speeds increase (say due to more intense heating or heavier rain) the damage scales as the square of the velocity. So a twenty mile an hour wind exerts four times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. And a forty mile an hour wind exerts sixteen times as much force as a ten mile an hour wind. A wind of fifty miles an hour exerts twenty five times and a wind of sixty miles an hour exerts thirty six times as much force as one of ten miles an hour. Then you have the density term. Water is about eight hundred times denser than air, So the force exerted by a ten mile an hour flow of water is eight hundred times that of a ten mile an hour wind. So as flow velocities go up due to climate change, force and damage scale as square of the velocities. What is not clear is how much these velocities increase with climate change. But in a sense we are seeing this already as, for example, flood and sewage systems succumb and hillsides fall down, and so on.
There is a very complex set of climate systems impacted by sea level rise. The shape of the Earth is changing and speeding up as ice from the poles melts and is drawn toward the equator through centrifugal force. A study published in Geophysical Research Letters of the American Geophysical Union suggests that global warming has led to significant melting of glaciers due to which our planet’s axis of rotation has been moving faster since the 1990s. All of this has a great impact on our weather. The rain intensity is increasing faster today than ever known.
— from Sea Level Rise: Then and Now / Mukherjee and Brouse (2023)
LYRICS
Get off the floor
And out the door
Not like before
So much more
Explore
Chorus of chaos
Strings and things
Core us is chaos
Rings and sings
Vibration elevation
Dynamics of harmonics
In the thick
Of music
Get off the floor
And out the door
Not like before
So much more
Explore
Chorus of chaos
Strings and things
Core us is chaos
Rings and sings
Pythagorean harmonies
Grasp comedy from tragedies
Making quarks spark
Out of music
Get off the floor
And out the door
Not like before
So much more
Explore
Chorus of chaos
Strings and things
Core us is chaos
Rings and sings
Extemporaneous
Spontaneous
Impromptu
Through
Me and you
In the thick
Of music
Chords: A C C A / C G D A / A E E A; Part II @ 129 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Fender Squire Mini (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
The song was written and recorded extemporaneously.
The relationships between chaos theory, string theory, and music are a complex and interdisciplinary topic.
Some scientists and theorists have explored the idea that the vibrational nature of strings could have parallels with the vibrational nature of musical notes. String theory hypothesizes that very small “strings” vibrations produce the observed particles and forces of nature similar to a vibrating guitar string and heard in Pythagorean harmonies. If you view a guitar string in slow motion, it moves in a variety of ways at the same time in a similar fashion as the forces in subatomic particles.
“A piano or violin string can resonate or vibrate with many different shapes of vibration corresponding to different tones. There is basic tone and there are higher overtones. The richness or beauty of music has to do with the different interplay of the harmonics,” explains Edward Witten.
— from The Science of Chaos Theory, String Theory, and Music
LYRICS
1. Watch that quark
She’s ready to spark
Of course
On course
For the strong force
Not right
To wave in the light
Might flight
Into insight
For that matter
Bizarre D*
Dark matter
Dark matter
… a little further
What’s the matter
With dark matter?
Please shed some light
What’s the matter
With dark matter?
She’s alright!
Have to climb Wittgenstein’s ladder
To see delight
In the night
2. Stark hexaquark
Find in the dark
Often found
3 up, 3 down
3. Quote: “Quark can’t be broken”
Spoken: your light awoken
Chords: E7 Am7 D7 / D7 C / C Em / Bm Em / Em E7 / A7 E7 A7 B7 E7; Part II @ 116 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Fender Squire Mini (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
Quarks are elementary particles and a fundamental constituent of matter. They combine to form protons and neutrons, which in turn make up atomic nuclei. There are six types, or “flavors,” of quarks: up, down, charm, strange, top, and bottom. Quarks are never found in isolation; they are always bound together by the strong force, mediated by particles called gluons. Current understanding is quarks are indivisible and cannot by broken down.
Dark matter is a mysterious form of matter that does not emit, absorb, or reflect light, making it invisible and detectable only through its gravitational effects. It is thought to make up about 27% of the total mass and energy content of the universe, as inferred from observations of the large-scale structure of the cosmos and the motion of galaxies.
D* (D-star) hexaquark particles are hypothesized to consist of three up and three down quarks, and have been proposed as a candidate for dark matter. A study found that production of stable d* hexaquarks could account for 85% of the Universe’s dark matter.
Ludwig Wittgenstein, an influential 20th-century philosopher, introduced the concept of “Wittgenstein’s ladder” in his later work, particularly in his book “Philosophical Investigations.” This idea is closely related to his views on language and the nature of philosophy.
The ladder metaphor is used to illustrate the idea that philosophical problems often arise from misunderstandings or misuses of language. Wittgenstein suggests that philosophical confusion can be dispelled by recognizing the ways in which language is used and by clarifying the meanings of words.
The ladder analogy can be explained as follows:
In essence, Wittgenstein’s ladder is a method for overcoming philosophical puzzles and confusion by examining and understanding the language that gives rise to these problems. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing how words are used in different contexts and discourages the tendency to create philosophical theories based on misunderstandings or misuse of language.
For Wittgenstein, the goal of philosophy is not to provide grand theories or solutions but to dissolve philosophical problems by exposing their linguistic origins. By understanding how language functions in everyday life, we can dispel the illusions that lead to philosophical confusion.
LYRICS
Despite the dirt and grime
Despite the vice and crime
At The End of time(s)
I’ll feel fine
Unite with scientists
Solutions we can’t resist
At The End of time(s)
You’ll feel fine
At The End of time(s)
We’ll feel fine
As the fear of the unknown has grown
Look to the sage to be shown
Near the age of the known
Near the age
Of the known
Be a sage
Of mind-blown
Despite the dirt and grime
Despite the vice and crime
At The End of time(s)
I’ll feel fine
Unite with scientists
Solutions we can’t resist
At The End of time(s)
You’ll feel fine
At The End of time(s)
We’ll feel fine
All we have to do is look around
Answers to be found abound
Near the age of the known
Near the age
Of the known
Be a sage
Of mind-blown
Despite the dirt and grime
Despite the vice and crime
At The End of time(s)
I’ll feel fine
Unite with scientists
Solutions we can’t resist
At The End of time(s)
You’ll feel fine
At The End of time(s)
We’ll feel fine
The fear of the unknown is gone
Moving on… feeling knowledge dawn
Near the age of the known
Near the age
Of the known
Be a sage
Of mind-blown
Chords: F/7 Eb Bb F / Ab Eb Bb / Eb Bb F; Part II @ 152 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Fender Squire Mini (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
Fear
Why are people afraid of climate change?
The fear of the unknown and the fear of the dark are both common human fears that can be rooted in our evolutionary history and psychological factors.
Both fears are deeply ingrained in the human experience and can vary in intensity from person to person. Understanding and addressing these fears often involve a combination of psychological strategies, exposure therapy, and cognitive-behavioral techniques to reframe perceptions and reactions.
Climate Change Knowledge
We know the following to be inevitable and irreversible:
Tipping cascades have emerged between biogeophysical and social-ecological systems. This Domino Effect is causing climate change to accelerate at an exponential rate.
Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops.
Push a glass toward the edge of a table and eventually it will fall off on its own. No matter how slowly or meticulously you push… no matter how you weight or fill the glass, it will reach a tipping point and fall off before being pushed completely off the table. No matter whether you believe the glass is half-empty or half-full, when the tipping point is reached it will plummet out-of-control to its end. This is science not fate, faith, nor belief. Human induced climate change has resulted in environmental tipping points being breached.
Tipping points, when crossed, trigger self-sustaining feedback loops that are no longer dependent on human activity. Similar to when a domino topples over hitting two more dominoes that in turn fall hitting more dominoes. Thus, the name The Domino Effect. It can also be visualized as The Snowball Effect. A tipping point is like a snowball rolling down a hill growing in mass and velocity (momentum). When a tipping point is crossed, it results in cumulative and reinforced global warming.
Crossing even a single tipping point is alarming. For instance, crossing the tipping point for ‘mountain glacier loss‘ has immediate consequences: millions of people in Europe will be impacted by the lack of fresh water. Billions of people that live along coasts will be impacted by the saline infiltration and eventually by the submerging of their property. In September of 2022, UNESCO reported accelerated melting of glaciers in World Heritage sites, with glaciers in a third of sites set to disappear by 2050. In September of 2023, the GLAMOS glacier monitoring center found 10% of Swiss glaciers had disappeared in the last 2 years. They do not expect any Swiss glaciers will be left by 2050 no matter what actions are taken. If extreme measures are taken, they anticipate we may be able to save some polar glaciers.
This in and of itself should be alarming; however, it gets worse. Tipping points are parts of feedback loop systems. The ice-albedo feedback loop is an expression of the ability of surfaces to reflect sunlight (heat from the sun). Any loss of ice over a darker surface means the surface will absorb more heat and reflect less heat. This process makes the Earth warmer causing more loss of ice, which in turn causes more warming of the Earth. So, yes, the mountain ice tipping point is quite alarming for both its immediate impact as well as its self-sustaining growth to global warming; but wait, it gets more alarming. The increasing temperatures due to crossing a tipping point cause other tipping points to be toppled (The Domino Effect).
By the Autumn of 2023, it had become evident the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will completely melt. The process is irreversible and inevitable. The cool water from the melting ice at the poles is being drawn toward the center of the Earth and getting warmed to record high temperatures. The warm, moist air is circulating and moving over land. These changes in climate systems will cause other areas to experience unprecedented drought. We expect sea level rise will total about 270 feet over the next several millennia. It is episodic, and in the fast bits it can go up 3 feet every twenty years for five hundred years. The melting Arctic and Antarctic have multiple feedback loops including: enhanced oceanic heating and ice-albedo, Planck feedback, lapse-rate feedback, and cloud feedback.
The tipping point for the collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) was thought to be centuries away, at the earliest. In July of 2023, the study Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was published in the journal Nature Communications. “Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century (2025-2095) under the current scenario of future emissions.” The collapse is likely to cause faster sea level rise on the east coast of the US, more severe storms in Europe, and increasing drought in the Sahel in Africa. “From the study of past climate, we know changes in the AMOC have been some of the most abrupt and impactful events in the history of climate,” said Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and world leading oceanographer. During the last Ice Age, winter temperatures changed by up to 10C within three years in some places. “We are dealing with a system that in some aspects is highly non-linear, so fiddling with it is very dangerous, because you may well trigger some surprises,” he said. “I wish I knew where this critical tipping point is, but that is unfortunately just what we don’t know. We should avoid disrupting the AMOC at all costs. It is one more reason why we should stop global warming as soon as possible.” A feedback loop created by the AMOC tipping point would cause a disruption of weather systems and circulation. The result would be the loss of naturally occurring carbon sinks. One scenario is desertification of the Amazon rainforest. In 2023, the Amazon River and the Rio Negro set record low levels.
The tipping point / feedback loop problem is very complex (chaos theory) and exponentially alarming. Yet another tipping point appears to have been triggered before 2024 — Amazon Rainforest Dieback. The Amazon is often referred to as ‘the lungs of our planet.’ Not only does the Amazon suck in huge quantities of CO2 and breath out O2, but the Amazon soils also store huge amounts of CO2. The desertification of the Amazon would result in a release of the carbon as the soils disappeared.
— from Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
What will the “End of Times” look like?
“The era of global warming has ended and the era of ‘global boiling’ has arrived. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning”, UN secretary general, António Guterres, said after scientists confirmed July 2023 was on track to be the world’s hottest month on record.
Movement of people and animals caused by climate is one factor. Warming at higher latitudes allowed vectors and pathogens to survive winter is another factor. The report goes on to say, “The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions.”
This research reveals more evidence that humans will have difficulty adapting to climate change, especially those in developing countries, Mora said. “The magnitude of the vulnerability when you think about one or two diseases — okay, sure, we can deal with that,” he said. “But when you’re talking about 58% of the diseases, and 58% of those diseases can be affected or triggered in 1,000 different ways. So that, to me, was also revealing of the fact that we’re not going to be able to adapt to climate change.”
In 2023, we wrote about having crossed tipping points in the paper, “Climate Change: How Long Is ‘Ever’?“. When we wrote the Tunnel Under Thesis in 1995, we forecast crossing these tipping points would not happen for centuries. We underestimated Man’s ignorance and arrogance. Fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have continued to set record highs. Humans have caused chain-reactions resulting in toppled tipping points, feedback loops, and The Domino Effect.
Events we thought would not happen in our lifetimes are happening now.
There will be enough ice melt to raise sea levels 220 feet. We estimate 270 feet to be “the minimum safe” elevation to live. High-tides, waves, coastal flooding, storm surge, grade of shoreline, etc. would make the lowest elevations for living space to be at least 270 feet above pre-industrial sea levels. This would be the minimum elevation. Personally, I would not want to live that low. As the water submerges sewage treatment plants, landfills, chickens, cows, and all sorts of other bio-hazards, the waters will become toxic. In addition, much of the land will experience salinization making it unfit for plant life. Another concern for elevations under 800 feet is living on an island. Many locations at lower elevations will become isolated. Living on an island has many problems including fresh water, food, shelter, and healthcare. Security from pirates pilfering, raping, and plundering will likely be the overriding concern. Of course, I don’t expect that to happen for millennia, but I hope government planners do plan for it now. If you look at Florida as an example, parts of the coastline have seen sea levels rise over 14-20 feet in the last decade. Although the storm surge was only for hours, you wouldn’t want to live there during those hours. Not to mention, the frequency of these extreme weather events will rise exponentially. Thus, our recommendation to evacuate Florida now (i.e. Managed Retreat). The billions of dollars spent to rebuild after Hurricane Ida will all be for naught. Allowing building there will needlessly endanger property and lives. Parts of the world have already seen storm surges of 40 feet. I expect most North American coastlines will see sea levels rise, if only temporarily, by 20-40 feet this century. As far as long run sea level rise, much will depend on location, gravity, isostatic adjustment, and thermal expansion. If the ocean temperatures get warm enough (thermal expansion), parts of the world may see sea levels rise to 270 feet for long periods of times. Other parts of the world, like Greenland, may actually see sea levels decline. In any event, the Earth crossed tipping points this decade which make extreme sea level rise inevitable and irreversible in our lifetimes. Planners should plan on it.
Sidd reiterated, “That 270 feet will take a long time. I would be more careful about the violent rain than the ice melt.” Expect to see increasing intensity and/or frequency in a wide variety of violent rain events including: downpours, flooding, hurricanes, cyclones, monsoons, coastal flooding, storm surges, lightning and wildfires, hail, extreme wind, and concurrent extremes. The reign of violent rain has already begun. More hillsides and shorelines are collapsing. Atmospheric rivers are dramatically increasing flash flooding in the Northeastern USA. Worldwide, stormwater systems are becoming overwhelmed. Ironically, the streets of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, UAE, flooded days before the COP28 Climate Conference. Nowhere is safe from violent rain, not even in the desert preparing for a UN meeting on the climate crisis. As a result of increasing violent rain, new drainage culverts are forming. Eventually, the culverts will transform into recurring streams, carving new canyons, creating new landscapes and islands. In addition, extreme weather events are increasing the frequency of lightning storms and wildfires. After wildfires, rain deluges cause massive landslides transforming the topography. At the same time as the violent rain makes its way to the sea, the sea is rising to meet the violent rain.
In the article “Violent Rain and the Substrate,” Greg Laden, coastal archaeologist, said, “With a little erosion, the Hudson, Lake Champlain, and the St. Lawrence could become contiguous, so New England becomes an Island.”
For any remaining humans, fresh air, water, food, and sunlight will all be problematic; however, your most severe concern will likely be security. Those with supplies will be at high risk of being raped and looted. Good luck!
— from Climate Change: The End of Times / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Conclusion
Don’t be afraid. Shed some light on global warming. Learn what is going to happen so you can reduce your anxiety and prepare for the inevitable.
LYRICS
There’s a drought in the rainforest
There’s no doubt what that’s about
You’ll find out about opinion
Versus the definition
Of desertification
Reached a tipping point
Fell over the edge
Who’s running this joint?
Need a new world pledge
Let’s get right to the point
Pledge to walk back…
… from the ledge
(Please step back from the ledge)
As a matter of fact, AMOC is whack
There’s no doubt what that’s about
You’ll find out about opinion
Versus the definition
Of overturning circulation
Alas, mountain glacier loss
There’s no doubt what that’s about
You’ll find out about opinion
Versus the definition
Of coastal saturation
Reached a tipping point
Fell over the edge
Who’s running this joint?
Need a new world pledge
Let’s get right to the point
Pledge to walk back…
… from the ledge
(Please step back from the ledge)
Reached a tipping point?
Reached tipping points
Breached tipping points
Multiple tipping points
Who’s running this joint?
Need a new world pledge
Let’s get right to the point
Pledge to walk back…
… from the ledge
(Please step back from the ledge)
Chords: B C E / A G E / G A E / G A A G E; Part II @ 110 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals, Acoustic Guitar, Electric Guitar, Bass, Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Korg N364, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
The song is about tipping points we appear to have breached. Push a glass toward the edge of a table and eventually it will fall off on its own. No matter how slowly or meticulously you push… no matter how you weight or fill the glass, it will reach a tipping point and fall off before being pushed completely off the table. No matter whether you believe the glass is half-empty or half-full, when the tipping point is reached it will plummet out-of-control to its end. This is science not fate, faith, nor belief. Human induced climate change has resulted in environmental tipping points being breached.
Crossing one tipping point would be alarming. For instance, crossing the tipping point for ‘mountain glacier loss‘ has immediate consequences: millions of people in Europe will be impacted by the lack of fresh water. Billions of people that live along coasts will be impacted by the saline infiltration and eventually by the submerging of their property. This in and of itself should be alarming; however, it gets worse. Tipping points are parts of feedback loop systems. The ice–albedo feedback loop is an expression of the ability of surfaces to reflect sunlight (heat from the sun). Any loss of ice over a darker surface means the surface will absorb more heat and reflect less heat. This process makes the Earth warmer causing more loss of ice… which in turn causes more warming of the Earth. So, yes, the mountain ice tipping point is quite alarming for both its immediate impact as well as its self-sustaining growth to global warming; but wait, it gets more alarming. The increasing temperatures due to crossing a tipping point causes other tipping points to be breached.
The tipping point for the collapse of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) was thought to be centuries away, at the earliest. In July of 2023, the study Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was published in the journal Nature Communications. “Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century (2025-2095) under the current scenario of future emissions.” The collapse is likely to cause faster sea level rise on the east coast of the US, more severe storms in Europe, and increasing drought in the Sahel in Africa. “From the study of past climate, we know changes in the AMOC have been some of the most abrupt and impactful events in the history of climate,” said Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and world leading oceanographer. During the last Ice Age, winter temperatures changed by up to 10C within three years in some places. “We are dealing with a system that in some aspects is highly non-linear, so fiddling with it is very dangerous, because you may well trigger some surprises,” he said. “I wish I knew where this critical tipping point is, but that is unfortunately just what we don’t know. We should avoid disrupting the AMOC at all costs. It is one more reason why we should stop global warming as soon as possible.” A feedback loop created by the AMOC tipping point is disruption in weather systems and circulation that cause loss of naturally occurring carbon sinks. One scenario is desertification of the Amazon rainforest.
The tipping point / feedback loop problem is very complex (chaos theory) and exponentially alarming. A third tipping point appears to have been triggered by the summer of 2023 — Amazon Rainforest Dieback. The Amazon is often referred to as ‘the lungs of our planet’. Not only does the Amazon suck in huge quantities of CO2 and breath out O2, but the Amazon soils also store huge amounts of CO2. The desertification of the Amazon would result in a release of the carbon as the soils disappeared.
1) much of July was spent at record temperatures +3C
2) the collapse of the Amazon rainforest is likely to happen between +2 – 4C. The collapse of the Amazon is expected to occur because of changing weather patterns and circulation that result in drought.
3) Brazil set up a task force for “unprecedented drought in the Amazon”
Low river levels and hotter waters have killed masses of fish seen floating on river surfaces, contaminating the drinking water, Environment Minister Marina Silva said. “We have a very worrying situation. This record drought has disrupted river transport routes (dropping 30 cm / day) threatening food and water shortages, and a large fish mortality is already beginning.” This was the effect of a periodic El Niño mixing with changes in weather patterns brought by global warming. “We are seeing a collision of two phenomena, one natural which is El Niño and the other a phenomenon produced by humans, which is the change in the Earth’s temperature.” Worsened by climate change, this combination has caused drought not seen before in the Amazon and “is incomparably stronger and could happen more frequently.”
Scientists concur that a rise of 2 degrees will trigger feedback loops and tipping points. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans cannot thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Humans cannot survive if the temperature rises 6 degrees.
— from Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)LYRICS
What we used to call winter
Is now barely a shiver
Try not to get bitter
Waiting for Man to deliver
Anomalies multiply
Like zombies, never die
Trying to get to laughter
Clawing through disaster
If you look just right
A splinter of light
Can we fight for delight
Get more light in sight?
Well alright!
Make it
Bright tonight
Take it
On outright
If you’re one to show
Please say so
If you’re one to shine
Shine on mine
Any time
If you look just right
A river of light
We might find delight
Get more light in sight?
Well alright!
Make it
Bright tonight
Take it
On outright
If you’re one to show
Please say so
If you’re one to shine
Shine on mine
Any time
Chords: Bbm Fm C7 Fm / Fm F / Eb F / Eb Db F; Part II @ 110 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Ibanez RG Series Electric Guitar (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.
2023: The Hottest Year in Human History
2023 was a wake-up call to both biogeophysical and social-ecological scientists. The record breaking physical and economical impacts could be felt worldwide. The record warming year was seventeen times greater than any other record increase in history. Typically record breaking temperatures are measured in 100th degrees. The graphic shows how far out of skew the 2023 anomalies are compared to the previous record set in 2016. There were also 200 consecutive days of record breaking temperatures. Typically there are one or two record breaking days in row. The increase in intensity and frequency of record breaking heat requires forecasting models to be recast.
— from Tipping Cascades, Social-Ecological Systems, and the Hottest Year in History / Brouse (2024)
What Can I Do?
There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.
LYRICS
The weirdest shade of sunset
Took over the sky
Do you wonder why?
Do our best
Staid off the rest
Come over, we’ll sigh
We’ve been living in a haze
For days
We’ve been living in a craze
In so many ways
The scattering of light
Sunlight passes through the atmosphere
Bathing in delight
In spite of risks and all our fears
Mesmerizing sunsets
Interconnectedness
Atmospheric processes
Vivid stunning hues
Ecosystem dues
Savage point-of-views
The weirdest shade of sunset
Took over the sky
(Now you know why)
Do our best
Staid off the rest
Come over, look high
Chords: Dm Em / Em A7 Em / Em A7 C Em / D A Em A / Dm Em; Part II @ 77 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
What caused the beautiful sunsets in the United States during the forest fires in Canada?
The beautiful sunsets observed in the United States during forest fires in Canada can be attributed to the scattering of sunlight by smoke particles in the atmosphere. When large wildfires occur, they release significant amounts of smoke, ash, and particulate matter into the air. This smoke can be carried by the wind over long distances and may reach neighboring regions or even other countries.
Here’s how the process works:
While the beautiful sunsets during forest fires create captivating visuals, it’s essential to recognize the environmental and health impacts associated with wildfires. Wildfires can cause significant damage to ecosystems, contribute to air pollution, and pose risks to human health. The mesmerizing sunsets are a visible reminder of the interconnectedness of atmospheric processes and the far-reaching effects of natural events like wildfires.
Climate change is contributing to the increased intensity and frequency of wildfires through a combination of factors that create favorable conditions for wildfires to ignite, spread, and become more destructive. A combination of factors creates feedback loops, where more intense and frequent wildfires release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to further climate change. This cycle reinforces the importance of addressing both the causes and consequences of climate change to mitigate the impact on wildfire risk.
ALSO SEE:
How is All Real Estate at Risk From Climate Change? / Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)
Wildfires / Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
Create a Climate-Resilient Environment in and Around Your Home / Brouse (2024)
LYRICS
Pastel light
To neon bright
Slipping into night
(Beget sunset)
The thrust of dusk
In the cusp
Slipping through twilight
(Forget sun, yet?)
What might make night
Overtake day?
Does the sun
Have a say?
Invite insight
The Earth turns away
Invite insight
Till another day
Getting the notion the motion
Once beginning spinning
Spins us round and round
Found doing laps around
… the sun
Never done
[Unless, of course coerced
By an outside force]
Chords: Am D C Am / D Em Am / Am C D Em Am / G Am / C Em Am; Part II @ 85 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Ibanez RG Series Electric Guitar (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
Why do we have night and day? How and why did the Earth begin to spin? How and why is the Earth tilted?
The Earth spins due to gravity. Between 4-5 million years ago a cloud of hydrogen, helium, dust, and rock started to pull itself together. The gravitational pull caused the cloud to start spinning. It is the conservation of angular momentum. Not all the gas and debris was moving at the same speed and direction. The asymmetry during gravitational accretion resulted in the angular momentum of what became Earth.
Wait! There is more. When the Earth got its tilt, the rotational speed was also reset by the giant-impact hypothesis. The origin of the Moon is believed to be the result of a giant Mars-like object striking the Earth. During the collision, a giant chunk of the Earth formed a debris cloud that would go on to become the Moon. The blow to the Earth knocked it on a 23.5 degrees tilt from the plane of its orbit around the sun, as well as, reset the Earth’s rate of rotation. The time of day, time of tides, and time of season are a result of the giant-impact.
Once the Earth was spinning, Newton’s First Law of Motion became the guiding force:
an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an outside force.
LYRICS
The levity of gravity
Is weighing on me
Holding me down
Specifically, Miss gravity
Is attracted to me
Holding me down
At what cost to be free?
A force to be reckoned with
But, without…?
Hurled out of this world
Smeared into the atmosphere
I fear
Utter widespread… destruction
Introduction
To the space race
The levity of gravity
Is weighing on me
Holding me down
Specifically, Miss gravity
Is attracted to me
Holding me down
At what cost to be free?
Oh, the gravity of gravity
I’m attracted to you, too
Impacted with you
In all we do
Hold true
Chords: FM7 C / C E Am / Am FM7 / D Am E Am / C D Am Part II @ 81 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
How is gravity holding me down?
Gravity is a fundamental force in nature that attracts objects with mass toward each other. It’s responsible for holding you and everything else on Earth down. The force of gravity is determined by the masses of the objects involved and the distance between them. In the case of Earth and you, the Earth’s mass is much larger than yours, so you are attracted towards the center of the Earth.
Sir Isaac Newton described gravity in his law of universal gravitation, which states that every particle of matter in the universe attracts every other particle with a force that is directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between their centers. Mathematically, this is expressed as:
or F=G⋅m1⋅m2r2
where:
In the case of Earth and an object near its surface, like yourself, the formula simplifies to:
or F=G⋅M⋅mr2
where:
This force pulls you towards the center of the Earth, creating the sensation of weight and keeping you “down” on the surface.
PART II
What would happen to me if gravity wasn’t holding me down?
If gravity were not holding you down, you would experience a state of free fall. In the absence of gravity, you would float or drift in the direction determined by any other forces acting on you.
If you were in outer space, far away from any massive objects like planets or stars, and there were no other forces acting on you, you would continue in your current state of motion (according to Newton’s first law of motion) unless acted upon by an external force. Essentially, you would be weightless and experience a sensation of floating.
However, if you were on Earth and gravity suddenly disappeared, the immediate consequences would be catastrophic. The atmosphere and everything not physically anchored to the Earth would also be affected. Objects, including people, would be thrown into the atmosphere at high speeds, leading to widespread destruction. The lack of gravity would have severe and likely lethal consequences for life on Earth.
LYRICS
Will you come along
Spirit lives on
Come and join in song
Spirit moves on
Hear it spawn
Melodies and harmonies
Resonate our substrate
Tragedies and comedies
Infiltrate3 our face-plate
[A7 A Am bridge]
Will you sing along
Emotion
Come and dance upon
Emotion
Feel it spawn
Melodies and harmonies
Resonate our substrate
Tragedies and comedies
Infiltrate3 our face-plate
Now we’ve joined our souls
Spirit lives on
Lives in rock n’ roll
Spirit moves on
Hear it spawn
Melodies and harmonies
Resonate our substrate
Tragedies and comedies
Infiltrate3 our face-plate
Chords: C E Am Em7(11) Am / C E Am / C D Am / C A7 C E A7; Part II @ 149 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
When music evokes emotions that spread through an audience, it’s often described as the result of emotional contagion. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon:
LYRICS
Jet stream’s bad dreams
Sagging and lagging
Where you do not know
The zonal flow
Jet stream’s weather extremes
Generation amplification
Blowin’ up stuff
Had enough
Blowin’ up stuff
Jet stream’s day dreams
Wavier savior
From under strain
Of the violent rain
Of the violent reign
Jet stream’s weather extremes
Generation amplification
Blowin’ up stuff
Had enough
Blowin’ up stuff
Going gets rough
Blowin’ up stuff
Had enough?
More intensity
And frequency
Increased blocking
Stalled and knocking
Jet stream’s weather extremes
Generation amplification
Blowin’ up stuff
Had enough
Blowin’ up stuff
Going gets rough
Can’t hang tough
Blowin’ up stuff
Had enough?
Chords: F#/7 / E D F# / C# F# / D B D F# B / B C# F#; Part II @ 123 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
How is climate change impacting the jet stream and atmospheric rivers on the East Coast of the USA?
The interactions between various factors, including ocean currents, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation, contribute to the overall climate patterns experienced on the East Coast. Climate change can influence the jet stream and atmospheric rivers, impacting weather patterns on the East Coast of the USA. The jet stream is a key player in steering weather systems and atmospheric rivers. Here are some key ways in which these changes may occur:
It’s important to note that the relationship between the jet stream and atmospheric rivers is part of a larger, complex climate system. Climate change is expected to have complex and significant impacts on the jet stream, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric rivers. Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics that studies the behavior of dynamic systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, often exhibiting complex and unpredictable patterns. In the context of climate change, several Earth systems, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the jet stream, atmospheric rivers, sea level rise, and droughts, can be influenced by chaotic dynamics.
LYRICS
Put your ear to the girth of the Earth
Can you hear it coming?
Dominoes falling
Urgent calling
Hear the sound
Look around
Put your ear to the ground
Survival situations
Due to human complication
Here the sound
Is found
Can you see the vision
The impact and collision
Propagate mechanical waves
The primate saves!
Put your ear to the girth of the Earth
Can you hear it coming?
Dominoes falling
Urgent calling
Put your ear to the ground
Dominoes are falling down
As humans rearrange
Bringing on the climate change
Dominoes are falling down
One knows Mother Nature frowns
Dominoes are falling down
The temperature is going up
Dominoes are falling down
Hope we have a backup?
Chords: E/7 A G E / D D# E / E C E / D C E / D C D C / C B7 E / C D E / E C E / C D E / E G E; Part II @ 144 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
This song is about the both literal toppling dominoes and figuratively falling dominoes, as well as the sound earth shaking observations. “Putting one’s ear to the ground is a phrase often used to describe someone who is listening carefully, attentively, or trying to gather information (demonstrating principles related to the propagation of mechanical waves.) The origin of this expression is rooted in Native American tracking skills and has been associated with the ability to detect subtle vibrations or sounds in the ground. It is often used in tracking or survival situations.
LITERAL FALLING DOMINOES
The physics of falling dominoes involves principles related to mechanics, specifically dynamics and energy conservation. When a row of dominoes is set up and the first one is pushed, a chain reaction of falling dominoes is initiated. Here are some key physics concepts at play:
The physics of falling dominoes is a dynamic interplay of various mechanical principles. Setting up and toppling dominoes is not only entertaining but also provides a hands-on way to observe and understand fundamental concepts in physics.
FIGURATIVE FALLING DOMINOES
Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops.
Identifying and understanding these tipping points is crucial for climate science and policymaking. Crossing multiple tipping points could lead to a domino effect, resulting in a much more rapid and severe climate change than currently projected.
Push a glass toward the edge of a table and eventually it will fall off on its own. No matter how slowly or meticulously you push… no matter how you weight or fill the glass, it will reach a tipping point and fall off before being pushed completely off the table. No matter whether you believe the glass is half-empty or half-full, when the tipping point is reached it will plummet out-of-control to its end. This is science not fate, faith, nor belief. Human induced climate change has resulted in environmental tipping points being breached.
Tipping points, when crossed, trigger self-sustaining feedback loops that are no longer dependent on human activity. Similar to when a domino topples over hitting two more dominoes that in turn fall hitting more dominoes. Thus, the name The Domino Effect. It can also be visualized as The Snowball Effect. A tipping point is like a snowball rolling down a hill growing in mass and velocity (momentum). When a tipping point is crossed, it results in cumulative and reinforced global warming.
Tipping cascades have emerged between biogeophysical and social-ecological systems. This Domino Effect is causing climate change to accelerate at an exponential rate.
The carbon sequestration from dissolved organic carbon is only one of the many carbon sinks in the Amazon. It is likely Amazon droughts will become more frequent and intense resulting in decarbonization at an exponential rate. The collapse of the AMOC will hasten the collapse of the Amazon. The collapse of the Amazon will hasten the collapse of the AMOC.
Feedback loops and tipping points are parts of an equation that determine the rate of acceleration in climate change. Triggering these tipping points results in the CO2 stored in nature to be released without the assistance of humans. Though we do not know how much carbon is stored in nature, it would be reasonable to assume that the temperature could be pushed from 3 degrees to 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Humans cannot thrive above a rise of 1.5 degrees. Much of the Earth will be uninhabitable if the temperature rises an additional 6 degrees Celsius. If humans also add 3 degrees Celsius, the temperature and humidity will approach a wet-bulb temperature that will not sustain human life.
For the first time in human history, global warming is going to continue no matter what humans do. Even if humans stopped their greenhouse gas emissions today, humans have invoked nature’s greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the sooner humans stop their emissions, the better. In addition, humans must adapt their habitat to remove, reduce, and hinder nature’s greenhouse gas emissions.
What Can I Do?
There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.
— from Toppled Tipping Points: The Domino Effect Brouse and Mukherjee (2023)
LYRICS
Once it’s already happening
It’s a little too late to wait
The voice of experience
Has been waiting for this date
Anticipate
The future’s sure to come
Presenting as the present
Soaking in the freedom
Let the message be sent
An ounce of prevention
Is worth a pound of cure
Our human intervention
Makes it all the more sure
Who will endure?
The future’s sure to come
Presenting as the present
Soaking in the freedom
Let the message be sent
The barn doors opening
Is swinging oh so wide
It’s midnight reckoning
We’re out of time to bide
Look far and wide?
The future’s sure to come
Presenting as the present
Soaking in the freedom
Let the message be sent
Chords: C D/7 C D/7 / D/ C G / G D7 D7 G (Part I D7 / Part II D); Part II @ 92 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar, Ibanez RG Series Electric Guitar (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
Human induced climate change is an exponential component of an unordered system (chaos theory). That means global warming is accelerating at a rapid rate in a complex way.
Unfortunately, even scientists are failing to see (let alone forecast) the rapid acceleration in climate change. Due to their complexity the impacts of the Domino Effect are being underestimated. Tipping points are Critical Milestones that directly impact the rate of acceleration in climate change by multiplying the number and intensity of feedback loops. The Domino Effect is also known as “tipping cascades” in climate science. Cascading impacts in relation to tipping points include cascading impacts across biogeophysical and social systems. Until recently, scientist have been drastically underestimating the social-ecological systems. The University of Exeter reports, “There is a notable lack of topic clusters dedicated to how humans will be impacted by climate-related tipping cascades.”
The Age of Loss and Damage is a new way of thinking about economics by combining economics, climate science, statistics, and physics. Until now, economic models have been unfit to capture the full extent of climate damage. Traditionally, “integrated assessment models” (IAMs) were used to forecast “shock” events. IAMs use “quadratic function” to calculate GDP losses by squaring the temperature change, yet ignore other methods (such as the exponential function) that are better suited for rapid change. “Climate change is fundamentally different to other shocks because once it has hit, it doesn’t go away,” said Thierry Philipponnat, author of a report by Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public interest NGO on financial issues. “And if the fundamental assumption is flawed, all the rest makes little sense — if any.”
Reuters reported, “Critics say this (IAMs) choice is doomed to underplay the likely impact – particularly if the planet hits environmental tipping points in which damage is not only irreversible but happens at an ever-accelerating rate.” Thierry Philipponnat’s report, Finance in a Hot House World, concludes: “Climate risk is growing to disruptive levels throughout the financial system and the guardians of financial stability urgently need to adapt their tools to regain control.” The report calls for economic models that do not mislead, scenario analyses that prepare the market, and a new prudential tool to address the build-up of systemic climate risk.
Traditional economics is based upon the “costs and benefits” to society. Since there are no known long-term benefits of climate change to society, the Age of Loss and Damage economics focuses on the exponential costs of climate change to society.
— from The Age of Loss and Damage Brouse (2023)
What Can I Do?
There are plenty of things you can do to help save the planet. Stop using fossil fuels. Consume less. Love more. Here is a list
Be a Butterfly
Be a butterfly and affect the world. The Butterfly Effect: “a small change in one small area can cause _large_ changes in conditions _anywhere_ on the globe.” Thus the oft heard statement that a butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.
LYRICS
Non-linear
That’s for sure
Teleconnect
Butterfly effect
Flap your wings
Impact anything
Flap your wings
Affect everything
Flap your wings
[Improv]
We can make music
Cause a hurricane in the Atlantic
We can make love
Comin’ in from above
Teleconnect
Non-linear
Teleconnect
The butterfly effect
Chords: A Am Em7(9) A / C E A / C D A / C D / E / E A D E / E G A; Part II @ 126 Beats Per Minute
Instrumentation: Vocals (TC-Helicon VOICELIVE and MiniNova Vocorder), Ibanez Acoustic Guitar (AW54CE), Ibanez Electric RG-270 (Boss Digital Delay), Fender Jazz Bass (Boss Digital Delay), Keyboards (Korg PS60, Casio WK-3500, Yamaha PSR-740, MiniNova, MicroKorg)
ABOUT THE SONG
Global warming is caused by an increase in thermal energy in the climate system. The Earth is a climate system. Many subsystems make up our climate. Chaos theory emphasizes the complexity and nonlinearity of dynamic systems, and this complexity is inherent in the interactions between soil, atmosphere, and oceans in the Earth’s climate system.
Atmospheric circulation together with ocean circulation is how thermal energy is redistributed throughout the world. Chaos theory offers insights into the complex, nonlinear dynamics of climate systems role in the redistribution of thermal energy. The Earth’s climate is a highly complex and dynamic system, influenced by various factors such as ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and feedback loops.
General Circulation Models for the earth climate are nonlinear and teleconnected. That means a small change in temperature or pressure or humidity in one small area on the globe can cause _large_ changes in conditions _anywhere_ on the globe. This is sometimes called the Butterfly effect. The complexity of these models can lead to chaotic behavior. Climate science must grapple with these models and extract results in spite of the mathematical difficulties, and there have been remarkable successes in some cases and sad failures in others. Nevertheless we must proceed.
Our climate model utilizes chaos theory in an attempt to adequately account for humans and forecasts a global average temperature increase of 9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Everybody has the responsibility not to pollute. There are plenty of things you can do: stop using fossil fuels, consume less, and love more. Here is a list of additional actions you can take.
Be a butterfly and affect the world... a small change in one small area can cause _large_ changes in conditions _anywhere_ on the globe. Hence, the frequently heard statement that a fluttering butterfly in China can cause a hurricane in the Atlantic.
— from Chaos Theory and Climate Change / Brouse and Mukherjee (2024)
ExperiMental Music: The music and lyrics are written and recorded extemporaneously. Extemporaneous, spontaneous, improvisation, jamming, freestyle, and impromptu music are most closely related to pure chaos. The music and lyrics evolve from the “sensitive initial conditions” similar to “a butterfly flapping its wings in China causing a hurricane in the Atlantic.”
Music as a Universal Language: Music has the power to communicate emotions universally. Certain melodies, harmonies, or rhythms can evoke specific feelings that resonate with people across different cultures and backgrounds.
The Science of Chaos Theory, String Theory, and Music
©The Philadelphia Spirit Experiment / Membrane.Com
